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Liam Blank – June 16, 2022

Stowe, you’re circling around an inconvenient truth for RPA without quite landing the punch: they’re planning for a world that doesn’t exist anymore.

The reality is, the “Gateway Future” they’re selling is one that still assumes 2019 commuting patterns—except those patterns are gone. Forever. They’ve baked in outdated assumptions about Midtown’s dominance, ignored the long-term structural shift of hybrid work, and somehow still concluded that a massive, redundant, stub-end terminal expansion is the answer. It’s like responding to the decline of landlines by building more payphones.

And yet, despite your insightful critique of RPA’s flawed projections, you stop short of the logical conclusion: if decentralization is inevitable, then so is the death of the hub-and-spoke commuter rail model. Instead of doubling down on Penn Station as a terminal dumping ground, we should be investing in through-running—just like Paris, London, and Tokyo have already done. The answer to more dispersed, flexible commuting is a more connected regional rail system, not more dead-end tracks that reinforce the very inefficiencies you’re calling out.

The problem isn’t that RPA is failing to see the future—it’s that they see it, and they’re actively resisting it to serve their old political alliances. They pretended to study through-running, only to sandbag it with bad assumptions. Now they want to spend $16+ billion to bulldoze a city block for a 20th-century relic.

If anything, you’ve actually made the strongest case for through-running yet—just without saying it outright. So let’s say it loud and clear: If RPA won’t plan for the world that’s coming, then their entire premise for Gateway is a $16 billion boondoggle in the making.

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