Is the Hudson Valley Prepared for a New Era of Wildfire Vulnerability?
No, and that should make us worried. I am.
Last year I drafted a long piece (on commission) about wildfire vulnerabilities in the Hudson Valley. For various reasons it was not published. In light of the recent flare up in wildfires in the region, I decided to publish the draft now.
Is the Hudson Valley Prepared for a New Era of Wildfire Vulnerability? | Stowe Boyd (2023)
Wildfires and other climate-related disasters are daily headlines. Canada is still on fire, all across the country. The wildfires raging across Canada this year ‘burned a land area larger than 104 of the world’s 195 countries’, according to David Wallace-Wells, and filled the skies of Canada and the U.S. with dense and harmful smoke.
Any sane person is aware of the increase in the incidence of wildfires: a rapidly warming world leads to more drought, higher winds, and other conditions that increase the size and intensity of wildfires. And the world is warming everywhere.
The inability of Canada to curtail that destruction -- much like what has happened in many locations across the U.S. -- led me to begin researching our readiness here in the Hudson Valley to deal with wildfires. Paradoxically, we’ve had a relatively wet and mild summer here. But that hasn’t been true elsewhere, as in Canada, Greece, The Canary Islands, and, of course, Maui.
The Maui wildfire -- an enormous tragedy -- is instructive. After a long, dry spring, high temperatures led to so-called ‘flash drought’ conditions where possible fuel for fire -- mostly invasive grasses that dominate former agricultural lands -- becomes tinder-dry. Former wetlands had been filled in for farms and homes. Hurricane Dora passed near the island, yielding no local rain but leaving a pattern of high winds. Sparks -- apparently from downed power lines -- led to the outbreak of at least one, and maybe multiple fires on the edge of Lahaina. As the winds blew, the fire spread rapidly, and undermanned fire departments were spread across a broad area, and then the water system collapsed. The town burned very quickly, as most people did not receive any warning, and 115 were confirmed dead: the deadliest U.S. wildfire in recent history.
How Big Is The Problem Nationally?
Ned Sullivan, the President of Scenic Hudson, wrote
According to the U.S. Forest Service, 80 million acres of its lands alone are at risk from devastating fires or abnormal levels of disease from insects and other pests.
Joyce El Kouarti of the US Forest Service wrote about the future risk of wildfires:
According to Senior Research Forester and Project Leader Jeff Prestemon, who led the Forest Service team charged with conducting the analysis, “The wildfire area burned is expected to more than triple in the next 80 years.”
An Associated Press compilation of wildfire projections sets the stage for the future of the Hudson Valley [emphasis mine]:
Wildfires in the U.S. on average now burn about 12,000 square miles (31,000 square kilometers) yearly, about the size of Maryland. From 1983 to 1987, when the National Interagency Fire Center started keeping statistics, only about 3,300 square miles (8,546 square kilometers) burned annually.
During the past five years, including a record low 2020, Canada has averaged 12,279 square miles (31,803 square kilometers) burned, which is three and a half times larger than the 1983 to 1987 average.
The type of fires seen this year in western Canada are in amounts scientists and computer models predicted for the 2030s and 2040s. And eastern Canada, where it rains more often, wasn’t supposed to see occasional fire years like this until the mid-21st century, [Canadian fire scientist Mike] Flannigan said.
*If the Canadian east is burning, that means eventually, and probably sooner than researchers thought, eastern U.S. states will also, Flannigan said. He and Williams pointed to devastating fires in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, that killed 14 people in 2016 during a brief drought in the East.*
We’re seeing the explosive increase in wildfire severity, a hundred years earlier than projected from climate models. And the Eastern U.S., which has been at fairly low risk for centuries, will likely follow the lead of Eastern Canada.
What About The Hudson Valley?
New York state is 61% forested - forests cover 18.6 million acres of 30.2 million total acres in the state. The Hudson Valley is 7,228 square miles, or 4,625,920 acres: approximately 15.5% of the State. Unlike other areas -- like the Adirondacks -- Hudson Valley forests are smaller, and located closer to towns and cities. Areas like the Hudson Highlands, the Catskills, and other elevated areas contain a great deal of the forested land in the Valley.
The Hudson Valley has been spared monumental wildfires in the past hundred years, due to restrictions on open fires and a relatively wet and cool climate. Still, the region has had frequent wildfires. And in recent years, drought conditions have led to fires that were difficult to extinguish or just had to be waited out, such as the West Point Ground Fire (1999), the Overlooks Fire (2008), Sam's Point Fire (2016), the Breakneck Ridge Fire (2020), and The Minnewaska Fires (2022).
Through mid-May of 2023, ‘there were 60 wildfires that burned approximately 1,024 acres across the state, according to data from the DEC. In 2022, 160 fires burned about 1,287 acres’, according to Chloe Bennett of the Times-Union.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association projects the Northeast will warm by 4.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2080. The Nature Conservancy estimates a 10%-20% increase in the risk of forest fires in New York above the historic baseline due to increased temperatures and an increase in drought likelihood. Others would say that range is low. Scenic Hudson compares the climate in New York in 2100 to that of today’s Southeastern U.S.:
The result of continued warming will be dramatic in New York. Even if, as a global community, we aggressively reduce our greenhouse emissions, we can still expect that New York’s climate will resemble Virginia’s by the end of this century. However, based on our current emissions pathway, we may experience something more like the climate of Georgia by 2100.
The level of concern about these wildfires -- which generally burn themselves out after a few days -- has not really been reconsidered based on climate change. Consider the accelerated change in Eastern Canada. A few groups have rescaled their estimates of wildfire probability, but most State agencies estimate risk based on historical data, not projections driven by climate change.
What Is The State of Readiness in the Hudson Valley?
There are few good examples of preparedness in the Hudson Valley.
Northern Shawangunk Ridge
The best prepared seem to be a coalition of groups who have been motivated to adopt an aggressive stance toward wildfires in the Northern Shawangunk Ridge in the Catskills that runs through Orange and Ulster Counties. This group includes
The Palisades Interstate Park Commission (PIPC) and NYS Office of Parks, Recreation & Historic Preservation (NYS OPRHP), Mohonk Preserve and the Open Space Conservancy1 (OSC) own approximately 30,000 acres of land managed as Minnewaska State Park Preserve, Sam’s Point Preserve, Mohonk Preserve and Witch’s Hole State Forest. The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is responsible for the management of Sam’s Point Preserve under agreement with NYS OPRHP/PIPC and OSC.
The Northern Shawangunks landscape covers approximately 90,000 acres along a 20-mile stretch between the town of Rosendale and Route 52 in the towns of Wawarsing and Shawangunk. This landscape also includes portions of the towns of New Paltz, Gardiner, Rochester and Marbletown, and the village of Ellenville.
The 2011 Shawangunk Ridge Fire Management Plan provides a comprehensive assessment of the conditions and challenges, and a plan to counter the risk of wildfires and an emergency plan for dealing with fires as they occur. It’s format is comprehensive, island starts with purpose and needs:
Much of the vegetation that exists on the Shawangunk Ridge today is highly flammable and prone to periodic wildfire. Many of the natural communities of plants and animals that now inhabit the ridge ecosystem evolved with fire over thousands of years, and depend on a regular cycle of fire in order to thrive. Over the past 50-100 years, fire has been effectively excluded from most portions of the ridge as fire suppression techniques have improved. This has led to the degradation of significant natural communities, as well as the accumulation of flammable forest debris. This abundant available fuel has now increased the potential for more intense wildfires to occur.
I contend that this is the case for any Hudson Valley forests.
The goals of the plan:
The following goals are based on the missions and policies of the various organizations and have been developed to maintain consistency with, and be complimentary to, the other planning documents for the major parks and preserves in the Shawangunks.
Maintain and improve firefighter and public safety
Maintain the health and integrity of Shawangunk Ridge forests, and the wildlife and plant habitats they provide, by restoring fire as an ecological process
Reduce the risk of damage from wildfire to wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities adjacent to managed lands in the Shawangunks
Implement fire management activities using a science-based approach that incorporates knowledge and understanding gained through monitoring and the adaptive management process
Conduct outreach and educational activities related to fire ecology and management to promote understanding and collaboration among stakeholders
Maintain a cooperative, partnership-based fire management program that is consistent with New York State laws and partner organization and agency policies.
I will focus on only a few sections, most pertinent to the response to a wildfire. Note, however, that any plan has to include a great deal of work to be done before actual fires occur, like building fire roads, prescribed burns to diminish underbrush, community outreach, and integration of fire departments and firefighters from other agencies in preparation for the inevitable wildfires.
From the plan:
Wildfire Response
Many actions described in the Northern Shawangunk Ridge Fire Management Plan are designed to reduce the risk of intense wildfire; however, wildfires—both human and naturally ignited—will inevitably occur. All wildfires will be reported to the Ulster County Emergency Communications Center (911) and suppressed or contained in an appropriate fashion given the nature of the individual incident. As incidents grow in size and complexity, a unified command structure should be established, including representatives from all responding agencies as well as park/preserve managers.
While every wildfire is unique, maintaining firefighter safety and protecting human life and property in the wildland-urban interface are the highest priorities in any wildfire incident. To the extent possible, protection of ecological, recreational, and aesthetic resources should also be recognized as a priority during wildfire suppression operations and weighed against the need to minimize acreage burned.
The plan has a very extensive analysis of the various sorts of trees and topographic details of the Ridge, as well as detailed maps for the wildland-urban interface (WUI) where people live surrounded by the woods. Any group undertaking a fire management plan or just seeking to understand the many facets of wildfire prevention should study this plan in detail. Note: It’s been over ten years since it was drawn up, so its assessment of threats may need to be updated to reflect climate change acceleration.
Dutchess County
Dutchess County published a Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2000 that ranked wildfire at the highest level of risk, and they laid out a detailed assessment of that risk while identifying certain steps to counter those risks. However, as far as I can determine, that assessment has not been updated, and no emergency management plan for wildfires has been developed.
Their assessment includes these critical points, all drawn from the document:
- Many areas in the State, particularly those that are heavily forested or contain large tracts of brush and shrubs, are prone to fires. New York State has over 18 million acres of non-Federal forested land, along with an undetermined amount of open space and wetlands. The Adirondacks, Catskills, Hudson Highlands, Shawangunk Ridge, and Long Island Pine Barrens are examples of fire-prone areas.
- Estimating the approximate number of wildfires to occur in Dutchess County is difficult to predict in a probabilistic manner. This is because a number of variable factors impact the potential for a fire to occur and because some conditions (for example, ongoing land use development patterns, location, fuel sources, and construction sites) exert increasing pressure on the WUI zone. Based on available data, wildfires will continue to present a risk to Dutchess County. Given the numerous factors that can impact urban fire and wildfire potential, the likelihood of a fire event starting and sustaining itself should be gauged by professional fire managers on a daily basis.
- Fire is determined by climate variability, local topography, and human intervention. Climate change has the potential to affect multiple elements of the wildfire system: fire behavior, ignitions, fire management, and vegetation fuels. Hot dry spells create the highest fire risk. With the increasing temperatures occurring in New York State, wildfire danger may intensify by warming and drying out vegetation. When climate alters fuel loads and fuel moisture, forest susceptibility to wildfires changes. Climate change also may increase winds that spread fires. Faster fires are harder to contain, and thus are more likely to expand into residential neighborhoods.
In response to my questions about an emergency wildfire response plan for Dutchess County I received this reply, and I emphasize one paragraph:
McMann, Sean - 10:49 AM (37 minutes ago)
Mr. Boyd,
Thanks again for your inquiry. The following response comes from the County’s Department of Emergency Response:
Dutchess County’s emergency planning efforts utilize an all-hazards approach through the county’s Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan, navigating a cycle of preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation.
Threats and hazards are identified and prioritized using a systematic approach though a County Emergency Preparedness Assessment (CEPA), facilitated by the New York State Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services.
Although not identified as a high hazard or critical threat within Dutchess County, based on historical data and statistical analyses, Dutchess County Emergency Management is acutely aware of the unprecedented wildfire activity occurring across the country.
Through existing fire mobilization and mutual aid agreements, all fire departments in Dutchess County have established preplanned alarm assignments to respond to and combat all fires. In addition, the Dutchess County Department of Emergency Response, all local fire departments and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation continue to partner and coordinate to ensure optimal readiness.
In addition, Dutchess County has provided grant funding opportunities to local fire departments in an effort to support the purchase of specialized all terrain utility vehicles and equipment designed to improve response to grass and brush fires.
The County’s Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan is currently under revision and we will be particularly focused on proactive measures to prevent wildfire conditions. In addition, the County’s Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan is currently undergoing its annual review and grant funding has been appropriated to begin revising this plan in 2024.
I hope that helps. If I can be of any more assistance, please just let me know.
Have a great day,
Sean
Sean T. McMann
Assistant Communications Director
Dutchess County Government
22 Market Street, Poughkeepsie, NY 12601
Phone: (845) 486-2000 Fax: (845) 486-2021
So, as I interpret that: yes, Dutchess County has no plan like the Northern Shawangunk Ridge Fire Management Plan, but maybe they will start developing one next year, if grant funding is found.
Given the degree of threat, that seems to be overly cautious.
I had no response from the Fire Chief in Beacon about the threat of wildfire in the City.
My conclusion is that the increased likelihood of significant wildfires, given increased heat and the chance of extreme weather, has not been reflected in planning in Dutchess County, and perhaps in other counties as well, excepting the Northern Shawangunks.
A Scenario for a Future Wildfire in the Hudson Highlands
The following is wholly conjectural but is based on the events that led to the Lahaina Maui disaster.
Following a long Spring drought, where the Mid-Hudson Valley received less than a third of its usual rainfall, in early July of 2025 a period of extreme heat and zero rainfall began, leading to 'flash drought' conditions. Efforts were made to discourage hikers and other visitors, and other potential fire ignition sources were being closely monitored.
However, when tropical storm Bernice transitioned into hurricane status on 14 August 2025, with sustained winds above 100 miles per hour, concerns grew. As the hurricane moved to the Northeast away from New York and made landfall in Eastern Connecticut, however, the winds in the Hudson Valley picked up dramatically, while none of the storm's rainfall fell in the Hudson Valley.
At 6:47 am 15 August, Bart Billingsly of Beacon NY called the City about a brushfire across the street from his home at 65 Howland Ave, where he reported an electric line had fallen due to the wind. Within minutes, firefighters arrived and extinguished the fire, and Billingsly left for work around 8 a.m. At around 9:15 a.m., his wife called and said there seemed to be smoke coming from the woods on the side of Mount Beacon, the tallest point in the Hudson Highlands. He returned home when the firefighters returned, and the winds were gusting to 50 or 75 miles per hour. One firefighter mentioned that they had several reports of fires in other parts of Beacon, and he'd heard that at least one fire alarm had been called in nearby Fishkill.
By 2 p.m., the authorities were alerting those living in the 'wildland-urban interface' (surrounded closely by woods), like the Billingslys, to evacuate, as various wildfires were spreading across the Hudson Highlands, and the authorities could not contain the fire. Note: 84% of Beacon and 100% of Fishkill residents live in the wildland-urban interface zone. The wind gusts made using helicopters to drop water difficult, the Highlands did not have many fire roads, and the local fire fighting companies did not possess many wildland fire fighting vehicles.
By that evening, 17 homes at the edge of the Mount Beacon Park in Beacon were damaged, seven of which were destroyed by fire, with one fatality. In Fishkill, four homes burned, with no fatalities.
Over the next two days, until a short but heavy rainfall emerged to save the day, the wildfires burned unchecked, even after State park rangers, federal agencies, and the National Guard joined the fight. Approximately 5000 acres had burned. After the rain, many questions remained. What was the proximate cause of the fire? A downed power line? A dropped cigarette by a hiker?
Others also asked what measures should have been taken in the preceding months and years. Had the authorities in Beacon and Fishkill taken steps to prepare their citizens for this eventuality? Why had no warnings been issued until the fire itself was burning? Had Dutchess County taken steps to minimize the inherent danger of wildland and housing so intertwined along the Highlands? Had the County and local fire departments planned for this sort of disaster? What were the plans, and were they followed?
And most of all, what if the rain had not providentially appeared or if the wind had blown even harder? Could the fire have broken out and burned across Beacon and Fishkill? Embers from wildfires can travel a mile and a half, meaning that around 85 percent of Beacon is located in the wildfire-urban interzone. The embers could have started an urban firestorm, like that of the Marshall Fire in Colorado in December 2021, where 1,000 homes were destroyed and thousands evacuated.
Yes, New York is not Colorado or Maui, two locales prone to drought. However, temperatures are rising everywhere, and in New York, as well.
The key takeaway is this: the Hudson Valley is unprepared for the growing likelihood of increasingly severe wildfires. Better planning be undertaken, and significantly more material and human resources need to be allocated, trained, and maintained. Or the Hudson Highlands scenario -- or a much worse one -- will become inevitable.